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and act as its own ASP. Don't you think Bill Gates would find it attractive to eliminate the middleman completely?)
Death of the PC?
Note the terms "remotely hosts" and "centrally located servers." That means accessing software via the Internet, or perhaps a gigantic corporate Wide Area Network (WAN) or an Extranet. Whatever, it essentially leaves grassroots users out in the cold. Can you imagine trying to use a modem and dial-up access use all your software if it was located on the Internet? It boggles the mind! Most of us don't have the broadband Internet access available to big corporations. But if leasing of software becomes the norm, how else could vendors control their user base other than by having them access it from a central host that could be monitored easily? Not to worry, corporate spokesmen hasten to assure us, the PC is dead anyway. Oh really, and when did this happen? Last time I looked PC sales were up last year over the previous year-which were higher than the year before, etcetera, etcetera-despite shortages of chips and other components caused by the Taiwan earthquakes. IBM's 1998 annual report issued last spring had a whole section titled "The PC Era Is Over." Major PC antagonists such as Sun Microsystems' Scott McNealy and Oracle's Larry Ellison have been singing the same song for several years. But how much of that is sour grapes? Are McNealy and Ellison still pouting because their vision of the Net PC died on the vine? IBM CEO Lou Gerstner believes that "new personal computing devices, such as personal digital assistants, Web-enabled TVs, screenphones, smart cards, and a host of products we have yet to imagine" will gradually replace the personal computer. Maybe so, but I don't expect to be tossing my PCs on the scrap heap anytime soon. I do expect to be upgrading and/or replacing them with new, faster, more capable machines well into the 21st century, which will not start officially until January 1, 2001, of course. What's your opinion? I'd love to hear from you on these points. I will revisit this subject of more computing changes we can expect in an upcoming column-and I will include insightful comments from readers.
Copyright 1999 by Ken Fermoyle, Fermoyle Publications. Ken Fermoyle has written some 2,500 articles for publications ranging from Playboy and Popular Science to MacWeek, Microtimes & PC Laptop. Ken's Korner, a syndicated monthly column, is available free to User Groups. For information or permission to reprint this article, contact kfermoyle@earthlink.net.
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